Econometric Modeling of the Impact of the Tourism Sector on Economic Growth within the Framework of Sustainable Development Goals in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 (1990 - 2024)

الملخص

This study aims to analyze the pivotal role of the tourism sector in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) within the framework of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030. This is accomplished by constructing an econometric model to evaluate the impact of key economic indicators (revenues, investment, and employment) on economic growth and to identify the challenges facing the sector. The results validate the hypothesis of a strong positive correlation between the growth of the tourism sector and economic growth, where the econometric model explains approximately 82% of the variations in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Furthermore the findings indicate that employment in the tourism sector is the strongest driver of economic growth, exhibiting an elasticity of 2.933% This underscores the pivotal role of tourism in economic diversification and the creation of qualitative job opportunities in both the economic and social dimensions, the econometric analysis demonstrated a strong negative correlation between comprehensive investment and environmental development, serving as a warning that rapid expansion may exacerbate environmental pressures, Additionally, key challenges were identified, including the high cost of tourism programs and low rates of job localization. Based on these results, the study recommends strictly steering tourism investment toward Green Economy practices and intensifying national cadre qualification programs to boost localization rates and maximize the high economic impact of employment. Furthermore, it advises addressing the cost challenge and improving infrastructure and services to ensure regional competitiveness and achieve integrated sustainable development.